The Russian Ministry of Defense today announced that it would begin withdrawing some forces to their bases after completing exercises near Ukraine, raising hopes for the ability to de-escalate the Ukrainian crisis after weeks of tension.
`I do not believe Russian President Vladimir Putin will order an attack on Ukraine,` Schuster told VnExpress.
`It could undermine the economic achievements that the Russian President has achieved during his time in power, as well as threaten to cause heavy political damage if the human and financial costs of the war were to be paid.
Ukrainian soldiers participate in exercises near Kharkiv, Ukraine on February 10.
Charles R Hankla, associate professor of political science at Georgia State University in Atlanta, USA, shares this view.
According to Hankla, Putin’s decision to deploy troops close to the Ukrainian border is a move to test how far Russia can go before the US and NATO react.
Although the US and NATO made it clear that they do not intend to send troops to Ukraine to directly fight if war breaks out, Washington has shown a tougher stance than what Moscow predicted.
According to him, that cost-benefit consideration forced Putin to accept some small concessions and withdraw his forces at the appropriate time, when the US and NATO determined not to accept Russia’s core security demands.
Moscow also seems to have left itself a way out, repeatedly denying the possibility of attacking Ukraine.
Russia began to show signs of de-escalation on February 14, when Dmitry Peskov, Kremlin spokesman, said President Putin was willing to discuss security requirements and the situation in Ukraine.
Russian tanks leave the training ground in Voronezh.
Previously, when meeting with President Putin, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov also said that Moscow should continue to pursue diplomacy to achieve its goals, although he emphasized that `diplomatic efforts should not last indefinitely.`
Russian experts have also commented that they do not see the possibility that Putin will order an attack, despite recent warnings that the US and the West have repeatedly issued.
`I don’t see any basis to believe that an attack will happen. I don’t know what it will bring. The losses will be huge, while the results will be very limited,` said Andrei Kortunov, head of the Association.
Kortunov commented that Russia’s recent move to put pressure on Ukraine’s border has two goals.
`Putin will only accept a neutral Ukraine as a member of the European Union,` Schuster said.
NATO appears to show no signs of giving in to this demand.
Fyodor Lukyanov, head of the Council for Defense and Foreign Policy in Moscow, said that in addition to military measures, Putin can still increase pressure on the West in other ways to achieve his goals.
`Putin’s calculation is not to resolve the Ukraine crisis with war, but to put the West at the negotiating table on the principles of a European security settlement,` Lukyanov said.
In addition to this goal, experts say that another reason why it is difficult for Russia to mobilize troops with Ukraine is the impact of domestic public opinion.
`Most Russians see Ukraine as an important part of Russia’s European identity and a buffer against Western threats,` Schuster said.
Many experts expressed optimism about the prospects of the situation after Russia withdrew part of its forces on the border with Ukraine, but remained cautious about Moscow’s future calculations.
See more:
– 5 questions about the Ukraine crisis
– Reason why the US accused Russia of ‘about to attack’
– Three months of the Russia-Ukraine crisis heating up